On joining Iran in the SCO and BRICS
Especially for Iran.ru
In this multipolar world, even very large power in the world is difficult to conduct effective foreign policy and ensure its national interests, whether political, military or economic, without relying on a friendly country or just partners. And, as a rule, it is not only about the bilateral cooperation, but also on participation in global and regional organizations. And even more true for the regional powers, one of which is Iran. Especially at this stage when the Ukrainian crisis and the "Arab revolution" created an entirely new international realities, and the U.S. desperately trying to maintain its role as a world leader, and chief of international policeman "defender" of democracy.
Acting rudely, often resorting to military force and blackmail by imposing its values and its opinion, Washington has in a short time returned to the world of the "cold war" and confrontation in all spheres. Americans are trying to make unilateral sanctions imposed by bypassing the UN Security Council a tool to subjugate those states that do not want to follow in the footsteps of American politics. That is why it is extremely important for Iran to find their place in the existing international and regional security and cooperation structures, and surround yourself with partners allies based on common interests and mutual respect. Especially that Tehran is on the brink removing international financial and economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. initiative, the Western countries through the Security Council. Iran must decide with whom to go on to again not be isolated. Because until now, in addition to membership in the UN, OIC, ECO and ineffective, Iran is not in other global and regional alliances and alliances.
It is necessary to convert the GCC SSGPZ
Of course, ideal for Iran, for that matter, and for Iraq, would be joining the GCC (Cooperation Council for the Arab Gulf countries), which now unites six Arab Gulf states. And then this Council would become a full fledged regional structure, providing peace, security and cooperation in the region, serving as a tool and not the implementation of regional ambitions mainly Saudi Arabia, which sees Iran its main rival and competitor. Then would the GCC has been transformed into a kind of OSCE Gulf with a possible connection to the organization as an observer or associate members of important external actors, such as Russia, USA, China, India, Germany, France and Britain. But it is at this stage completely unrealistic, given the anti-Iranian orientation of the GCC and its support in the field of security solely on the United States.
Shiite axis - dead end
There is another option - the formation of Shiite axis comprising Iran, Iraq and Syria. But this way in the long term is a dead end, as any unions on a confessional basis doomed to failure. Although in the short term, as it is now, when it is necessary to reflect the radical Sunni armed offensive formations type LIH with the support of external forces, such an alliance, primarily in terms of military and intelligence cooperation, is justified. Especially that for objective reasons "Shiite arc" sympathetic Russia and China are not interested in the victory of terrorists and extremists in Syria and Iraq.
In this regard, it seems, Tehran could use the already existing organizations, which include countries seeking to resist the aggressive policy of the United States in its traditional spheres of influence and to develop multi-faceted economic and trade cooperation in the face of the dominance of Western financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank, where Washington commanded. It is primarily about the SCO and BRICS. It is not the same IRI join NATO? Especially that there Iran nobody expects a strong pro-Western rivals in the region enough - especially in the face of Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Iran SCO membership drastically change its entire political
Participation in the SCO as a full member, not an observer, meets the objectives of regional policy in Iran. This would enhance the economic potential of Iran, including through the transformation of this country in the energy and transport center of the region. Iran has for the good geographical location, rich natural resources, especially oil and gas, experience transfer to a market economy basis while maintaining the social welfare system. More questionable is the extension of the nuclear program as a national problem. Of course, the implementation of the nuclear program strengthens the authority and influence of Iran in the region, but also increases the vulnerability of Iran as a pretext for interfering in the affairs of the Iranian pressure on the country to cooperate with him. Especially what has long been obvious - the main goal of the United States against Iran is not its nuclear program, and there is a change of the existing regime. Washington will use the normalization of relations with Tehran and disarming him sanctions to strengthen the position of pro-Western Iranian liberals to organize then "color revolution "in Iran. Implementation of this "project" is facilitated not only by the fact that there is an opposition in the country, but the presence of variegated ethnic structure of the population, which increases the risk of development of separatist movements. The promotion of such movements from the outside can not only lead to regime change, but also the disintegration of the country. In solving this problem it is Russia and China, which are heavyweights SCO able to provide the necessary support of Iran, as they are long-term goals of the U.S. in terms of "color revolutions" and incitement to ethnic and religious strife, and have experience in combating this kind of American intentions .
In turn, Iran's participation in the SCO can be productive for its relations with the Islamic world, especially through the OIC, as well as through linkages with Tehran Islamic organizations operating in different countries. Experience of the past decade has shown quite clearly that the impact on the Iranian situation in the regions mainly had a stabilizing character. Tehran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability and willingness to engage constructively in the settlement of regional conflicts. Especially useful for SCO may be the use of the economic potential of Iran, in particular to strengthen collective energy security. Iran has oil (fourth place in the world), gas (second in the world). Has developed in the region network of railways and highways, which is associated with most of the SCO member states. In recent years, being modernized ports, particularly in the Gulf. On the whole, Iran occupies a strategic geographic location at the crossroads of routes from West to East, from South Asia to Europe. And the security of Iran and has a wealth of invaluable experience in the fight against drugs and drug trafficking from Afghanistan. Furthermore, the presence of Iran in the SCO as a full member can strengthen the organization to cope with U.S. ambitions in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, Arabia, Caucasus and Central Asia. Iranian involvement in the organization can be effectively used SCO countries and as a means of pressure on the United States. The presence of Iran in the SCO strengthens Islamic component of the Organization and may be a factor in promoting the interests of Russia and China in the Islamic world and the OIC, where so far the predominant influence of the conservative bloc of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia.
The most painful issue for Iran's role in the SCO - its nuclear program. However, this is primarily a headache mainly for the U.S. and Israel, and not for the SCO, whose members (observer only Iran, by the way, as well as members of the SCO) is a party to the NPT. In any case, Russia and the SCO member states are interested in, to avoid military intervention in Iran under the pretext of eliminating its nuclear program. For Moscow in its efforts to prevent the military option against Iran is dominated not so much by economic considerations, as the desire to avoid regional conflict. The threat of a national separatist movements in Iran with sufficiently high probability lead to their development in virtually all countries of the SCO, including in Russia. In China, of course, dominated by interest in Iran as a source of energy.
It should be recognized that in the context of Islamic rule in Iran Russian bad or poorly found in relations with Iran the necessary balance, in which the respected political and economic interests of the Russian Federation. But now, right before our eyes, the situation changes dramatically. Washington wants to use the talks with Tehran to expel Iran from Russia and China. Therefore, Moscow and Beijing need to clearly understand that in the event of changes in the nature of power in Iran and strengthen the U.S. position in it, Russian and Chinese interests in Iran can be pushed back significantly. Therefore, it is time to find new forms of rapprochement with Tehran, not only through the mechanism of bilateral cooperation, but also by taking a full member of the SCO Iran.
BRICS with Iran would be a real counterweight to G7
If Iran SCO important in terms of regional cooperation at the global level would meet the needs of its membership in the BRICS - a kind of counterbalance to the "big seven". So far, from a formal point of view, it is hampered by the presence of the sanctions imposed by the UN. But this obstacle is likely to be soon removed. Another thing - the attitude to Iran's accession to this union of countries with rapidly developing economies of the participants themselves. Until now, none of them seriously raised the question of the inclusion of Tehran in BRICS. Although the Iranians themselves have stated their intention to do so in October 2013. "Expansion of the BRICS, including the adoption of new members - this question is not on the agenda" - then said the representative of Russia Sergei Storchak, commenting on Iran's desire to join the club. Explaining this approach, in particular, he noted that the BRICS now working on the creation and development of the bank's currency reserve pool.
However, due to changes in the global situation due to the conflict in Ukraine and the "color revolutions" in the Middle East, might be worthwhile to go back to the stated intention of Tehran. Especially in the economic component of the BRICS summit of the organization in Brazil July 15 happened is talking about Sergei Storchak - created as a development bank, so the pool valyut.Ustavnoy capital development will be $ 50 billion. Each country will provide one fifth. Conceived as an alternative to the World Bank, the financial institution, according to diplomatic sources, will be located in Shanghai, and to lead them in the first stage will be the representative of Brazil. Bank will primarily finance infrastructure projects in member countries, and subsequently begins to give loans to other developing countries that are not members of the BRICS. As for the pool of foreign exchange reserves, is acting as a competitor to the IMF, it will provide its members with stabilization loans to align their trade balances, as well as to repel attacks of speculators in their national currencies. Capital currency pool will be $ 100 billion, of which 41 billion will China at 18 billion Russia, Brazil and India, and the remaining 5 billion will provide South Africa.
So that Iran could easily join these arrangements after removing it sanctions. Especially that the BRICS investment in Iran's economy, especially in the hydrocarbon sector, and the creation of the Southern Corridor would have significantly strengthened not only the economic potential of Iran, but also increased the role of the BRICS in the world economy, including the global carbon market, thus weakening Western influence on the ongoing processes in the global economy.
Becoming a member of the BRICS, Tehran would have significantly strengthened their political position in the system of international relations, given the increasing role of the club in the decisions of the strategic plan. At the same benefits would be mutual - being in the center of the Middle East, Iran would provide BRICS key place in this region. A voice in world affairs Tehran would sounded much louder. Moreover, the entry of Iran in this organization would ensure her presence within its ranks until the missing link - an influential representative of the Islamic world.
Of course, it's all for today may seem a distant prospect, especially what concerns the BRICS. Although in reality, much will depend on the political will of both sides - Iran and the aforementioned organizations. Apparently, Tehran need to act more actively and aggressively. Indeed, in the first place Iranians benefit from this. Especially because to join the SCO and BRICS have a lot of applicants, comparable in weight and capacity with IRI (Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Egypt). The world is tired of American diktat and wants to live according to the norms of international law, and not by the rules of the White House. And now is the time to start the process of collective counter aggressive U.S. line who desperately cling to the remnants of the former power.